Climate Change

The Crocodile River in spate, South Africa.

Over the next century avarage global temperatures are predicted to rise between 1.5 and 5.5 degrees Celsius from 2000 levels. Alongside the changes in temperature will come changes in weather patterns, including extremes of drought and flood, increased occurrence of storms and changes in El Niño.

Climate change is expected to increase the loss of plant diversity and increase the risk of extinction for many species, especially those already at risk from other threats.

Many species will see a reduction in the areas with suitable climate for them to grow. For some, there will be nowhere suitable left to grow, and for others it will be far away from where they currently grow. These problems will be exacerbated by other stresses on plant populations such as habitat loss, pollution and over-exploitation by humans.

It is hard to predict the exact outcomes but models have been developed. For example, in Europe it has been suggested that by 2080 more than half of plant species could be threatened by climate change. In Africa, it is predicted that up to 42% of plants will have nowhere left to grow by 2085.

These changes in plant distribution make it hard to plan effective protected areas. Therefore, seed banking has an important role to play in providing insurance for species at high risk from climate change.

Plants on mountain tops are at particular risk from climate change

Plants most at risk from climate change include those with limited distributions such as mountain tops and the edges of continents, those which are already rare or restricted to small ranges, and those with poor dispersal capability and long generation times. The MSB is working to prioritise these types of plants for seed banking over the coming years.